The beginning of the NBA season will be here before you know it and we continue our award previews with the 6th man of the year of award. It’s a unique award in that it’s designed to reward a player who comes off the bench. To my knowledge, no other sport rewards a player who doesn’t start for their team. It speaks to the importance of the team in the NBA and not just the team’s best player or starting unit. The award is also very nostalgic for any fan of the Association. Listed below the are the previous 11 winners, but pull up the list of winners and you are bound to see names that make you smile. For me, it’s guys like Bobby Jackson, Antwan Jamison, Ben Gordon, and Manu Ginobili, but I’m sure you’ll find a name or two you forgot you loved. As mentioned, here are the winners for the last 11 seasons and few things to note:
No winner started in more than 45% of the games they played and only 2 have started over 25% of the time. You can see that some did start for portions of the season, but the voters have been true to the idea of the award by selecting a bench player.
Coming off the bench doesn’t mean the winner didn’t play a lot of minutes per game. 6 out of the last 11 winners played 30+ minutes per game and every winner played at least 25 minutes per game. Along with minutes come good basic stats which is key in any award voting. The winner over the last 11 years averages 17.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.3 BPG.
9 of the last 11 winners were shooting guards and speaking more qualitatively, all 11 came off the bench to score points and be a spark. Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams, and Jamal Crawford made careers as backups who could take the ball and score points while the stars got a break. Lamar Odom was less of a power forward & more of a point forward while Montrez Harrell was instant offense even though he didn’t bring the ball up the floor. All 11 fit the storyline of the “spark off the bench” for their teams.
Another award theme that we see clearly here, it helps to be in a big media market. 7 of the last 11 winners were on Los Angeles or New York based teams. This award is decided by voters from the media, so it would make sense that players on those teams not only get more attention throughout the season, but may also have more hometown voters on their side.
You can see above that 10 of 11 winners were on teams that not only made the playoffs, but won, on average, over 65% of their games putting them among the top seeds in their conference. There is a little bit of chicken and egg here, but bear with me. Is it as simple as the best teams have the best rosters and are therefore more likely to have a contender 6th man of the year? Or could this be a way for voters to reward one of the best teams in the league that might not get featured in other award categories? Regardless, we want to back players whose teams can be a top 3 to 4 seed.
Finally, this is an award for NBA veterans. On average, the winner is in their 10th season and only 2 players have won before their 9th season. It can take players time to accept a bench role and it generally happens after struggling as a starter to begin their careers.
Let’s dive into the market, cross some names off, and find some value.
The top of the market are the 2 Utah Jazz teammates that finished top 2 in voting last year, Jordan Clarkson (5 to 1) and Joe Ingles(8 to 1). Clarkson won the award at 8 to 1 odds, but a few days before the award was announced there were a few wild swings in the betting markets for this award. Ingles had been at fairly long odds all year while Clarkson was as short as -1000(1,10) for most of the season, but at one point the 2 were offered at roughly the same odds for about a day. It’s hard to know what that movement was, but I had 2 thoughts:
1. Any situation where 2 teammates are competing for votes can be tricky because any time votes move to one teammate, they likely come from the other teammate.
2. A vote for Ingles was effectively a vote for advanced statistics. Clarkson outscored Ingles by 6.3 PPG and even somehow outrebound by Ingles by 0.4 rebounds per game. He was the classic, spark plug guard off the bench that wins this award. Ingles had a much better effective FG%, more win shares, and was overall better in most advanced categories. Could voters be getting smarter?
The former concerns me and the latter is something I will keep an eye on this season, but nothing more serious than that for now. The market is right to have these 2 at the top of the list, but I don’t see value in either number. For either to win the Jazz would have to be a top 2 seed again and either Ingles will have to exceed his career high in PPG by a few points or voters will have to overlook Clarkson’s shortcomings when you look you more closely. That’s too much to ask at these numbers.
2nd or 3rd favorite most places is Kevin Huerter(12 to 1). My first concern here is that he may start too many games to be considered by voters. He started 49 or 69 games he played last season. De’Andre Hunter may supplant if he’s healthy to start the season, but if he’s not 100% or Bogdanovic gets hurt or Trae Young misses time then Huerter will fill in as a starter. I’m also worried about his ability to put the kind of stats or notable performances needed to garner enough attention.
Tyrese Haliburton(15 to 1) is great and if Sacramento can finally figure out to be a winner he will be a big part of the equation. He will come off the bench behind De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield, but it’s asking a lot of him to put up the stats needed to get votes or the Kings to be good enough to warrant 6th man consideration.
Take the last paragraph and replace “is great” with “is good”, Sacramento with Chicago, Kings with Bulls, and Haliburton with Coby White(25 to 1). Now, do it again, but this time we want “is above average”, Orlando, Magic, and Terrence Ross(18 to 1). Oh, and update the starters, but you get the idea by now.
Bobby Portis(20 to 1), Kendrick Nunn(25 to 1), and Talen Horton-Tucker(100 to 1) all will be on great teams and have a chance to be integral parts of the success of those teams. I’m not backing them because I don’t expect any of them to get the usage required to put-up eye-catching numbers. Nunn was the best option of the 3, but I’m going to wait and see how the Lakers use him. He has a chance to be the kind of spark plug guard that wins this award, but it might not be his time yet. If he is getting 20+ minutes per game and shooting well I will look to add him early in the season.
After Nunn, the next closest I was to backing someone was Goran Dragic (25 to 1). The Raptors look generally undervalued in the market to me and I think a lot of that is based on a poor season in which they played 0 home games. In fact, players did not get to return to Canada all season. The loss of Kyle Lowry will be felt, but the bottom of the East looks soft to me and this team has enough talent to at least make the play in game scenario. As optimistic as I am, I don’t think even that is enough to get Dragic votes. Oh, and he said this after being traded, “Toronto is not my preferred destination. I have higher ambitions. We’ll see.”
Our first wager will Derrick Rose (18 to 1) of the New York Knicks. He was 3rd in the voting for this award last year, although far behind the winner. He plays in a big market, is a veteran that has grown comfortable coming not starting, and is the kind of spark plug guard that has historically won this award. I don’t expect the Knicks to win 65% of their games, but the Rose checks every other box. He was the driving force for a New York team that was 24-11 when he played and just 17-20 without him. If the Knicks can compete for a top 4 seed again Rose will be in the conversation for this award and I’m happy to grab this price now. Barring an early season injury, this number will only get smaller as the season progresses.
Another guard in the Eastern Conference worth our money is Patty Mills (20 to 1). The Australian reminded us of what he was capable of in big moments during the Tokyo Olympics and joins a loaded, title favorite Brooklyn Nets team. He should be the first guard off the bench when Kyrie or Harden need a break and could be featured late in games when the Nets need his ball handling and shooting under pressure. He has all the ingredients of previous winners like Lou Williams and last year’s winner, Jordan Clarkson. I expect this to be the Nets’ season in a lot of ways and if Mills can hit a few shots late in important games while being a stabilizing, point providing force during the regular season he will be a prime candidate to be 6th man of the year.
The last wager is a bit of a long shot, but another player who is likely the best offensive option off the pine for a championship contender. Carmelo Anthony(50 to 1) joins the Los Angeles Lakers and unless the aforementioned Nunn peaks, will be the top scorer behind the starters. He is entering his 19th season in the league and has accepted that this late in his career that best thing he can do for a team is be instant offense as one of the first substitutes into the game. He might be washed and the just collecting a paycheck while having a shot a ring, but I’m still to take the chance that he has too much pride and fear of what Lebron James might to do to him to mail it in without getting hurt.
Here’s how I’m staking each pick to ensure roughly the same profit regardless of who wins:
Thanks for reading! You can reach me on Twitter at @_noops and at @AceNBAPreviews with any thoughts, questions, or general comments on this anything NBA related. Be sure to follow me there and check back here for more NBA content throughout the season. Best of luck to us!