AFL – St Kilda vs Richmond

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Guest previewer @TheTrendBettor, as found on Twitter, is here to preview the action to kick of the AFL this week.

24 hours before last week’s game, St Kilda were 14.5-point underdogs against the West Coast Eagles. Looking a week ahead actually helped form my St Kilda +14.5 bet last week, as I saw the Saints +16.5 v Richmond. Before I go any further; no, I’m not bragging/boasting about the winning bet, I’m more trying to illustrate as to how it relates to this week’s game.

If St Kilda were +14.5 (closed +10.5) against the Eagles at Marvel, and then you consider that home ground advantage is around 8-12 points (we’ll middle it and say 10), that means that the market was telling us that the Eagles as a 24.5 better team than the Saints.

And now? The Saints are +13.5 at the same venue against the Tigers with home ground advantage being marginal (maybe 1-2 points at best). So, the Eagles are a 24 point better team than the Saints, and the Tigers are “only” a 15 point better team than them? Make one more step, and you come to the conclusion that the market is/was telling you that Eagles are roughly a 9 point better team than the Tigers, which simply is not true. Hence the bet on the Saints last week, but maybe not the case this week.


  • Richmond are 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS at Marvel Stadium since 2017
    • Oh, if you’re new to the terms SU and ATS, they simply mean Straight-Up (did they win the game?), and Against the Spread/Line (did they cover?)
  • St Kilda are 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS as underdogs at Marvel Stadium under Brett Ratten
  • Since Brett Ratten took over the Saints, they are 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS against the Tigers (both in 2020)
  • Richmond are 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS after a loss since their 2016 flag
    • 9 wins by 1-39
    • 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS when lost 2+ games in a row since their flag

Notes: We’ve got some pretty conflicting trends in this one, so we think we’re just going to stay away from the line in this game. Our model has Richmond as 10-point favourites in this game, so the margin is too fine to back the Saints +13.5. Remember, if you’re betting, you think that the market is wrong, or off-the-mark. Which I don’t think it is, here.

Player Props:

I may as well just copy and paste last Friday’s player prop preview:…

  • Identifying wingers and betting then to have big games against Richmond has been nothing but cash in the past few years. Let me remind you what Damien Hardwick said in June 2020:
  • “Wings always have a good game against us… We play a certain style with our wings, we’re happy with our system and the way it goes, so numbers are numbers. “There are certain numbers you can look at and possessions you can look at but we look at the win-loss column. “It’s cost-benefit from our point of view and sides will get an advantage in one way but we’ll get an advantage in another.”
  • 2021 has been no different with wingers putting up huge dream team numbers against them:
    • Jack Newnes 104 (season average = 83)
    • Tom Phillips 84 (82.3)
    • Ollie Florent 103 (75), Jordan Dawson 105 (79.3)
    • Xavier Duursma 93 (82.3), Karl Amon 88 (88)
  • It should be no surprise that the two players we’re focusing on today are Brad Hill and Jack Billings, who go at 81.3% and 67.4% uncontested possession rate, respectively.
  • These two should feast tonight, as Richmond have conceded the 5th most uncontested possessions, and the most uncontested marks in the league.
    • Billings and Hill rank 2nd and 3rd in marks for the Saints (Membrey 1st)
  • Brad Hill averages 77.5 this season, and 83 at Marvel this season
  • Billings averages 99.7 this season and 99.8 at Marvel this season
    • I expect a bump on both of these numbers against a Richmond team that typically allows wingers to feast.
  •  With Hill having a higher uncontested possession rate, I’m drawn a little more to his props over Billings’, but I still like both…

Recommended Bets:

  • 1.5 Units – Brad Hill Over 78.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.90 (Ladbrokes)
  • 1 Unit – Jack Billings Over 94.5 Fantasy Points @ $ 1.88 (Pointsbet)

Make sure you’re following @TheTrendBettor for more AFL picks throughout the 2021 AFL Season. Odds are correct as of 15:30 – 15th April 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change.

Categories: AFL