Intro to Player Points Projections

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Welcome to Ace Sports Previews NBA Player Points Projections! In this intro, we will outline a new piece of free content the Ace team will be providing during the NBA season.

What are Player Points Projections? The Ace Sports team have created a player points model that can be used to give you an indication on if a player should perform favourably or unfavorably on a given day. Use this information for O/U betting, DFS or any other way you please.

Without giving away the recipe to our secret sauce, it is important that we talk about how this works:

What to consider if a projection favors over or under

Let’s say you’re comparing the Ace points projections to your local bookmaker’s O/U and notice a variance. Consider the following:

  1. All projected points are largely based on the last 10 games for each player. This is important to point out first up.

This is particularly important for “star” players who may have missed multiple games as it positively affects team mates when they are out (increasing their 10 game average) and negatively when they return (decreasing their 10 game average).

2. Is there any other team news that may affect things? Players that are out may increase the number for other players on the team at your bookmaker while players returning may decrease them. Projections provided do not factor in team news. Team changes may strengthen (ie. if overs are predicted and a key player is missing, this will improve the strength of that particular projection) or weaken projections.

3. Will the player get their normal minutes? Lineup changes, minutes caps, blowout games that lead to players sitting longer than usual should all be considered.

We look forward to bringing you this information throughout the remainder of the NBA season FREE. If you have any questions or feedback, please contact us at @AceNBAPreviews.

If using this information for gambling purposes, please remember to always gamble responsibility.